Sunday, September 30, 2007

Something in the tea leaves

The latest Newsweek poll in Iowa has some interesting information buried in it.
Support for HRC drops by about 25% when you factor in whether a respondent says they are a likely voter. Meanwhile, support for Obama and Richardson increases significantly when you factor this in, to the point that Obama goes from 6 point underdog to 4 point favorite.
On the Republican side, support for Huckabee and Ron Paul doubles or more when you factor in the likelihood of voting.
What this shows is that Hillary's support is disproportionately amongst people who don't really care too much about the primaries (and presumably aren't following politics closely). Similarly, support for Obama, Richardson, and especially Huckabee and Paul is disproportionately from people who do care about the primaries (and presumably are following politics closely).