Per the Politico, Fred Thompson is likely to drop out of the race if he doesn't finish third or if he fails to get 15% of the Iowa vote. As I suggested last week, the Politico is reporting that Thompson would most likely endorse McCain should he drop out. This would be a crucial boost to the already-surging McCain, particularly since it would occur early enough in the campaign for McCain to take a long-term advantage from it. A Thompson drop-out and endorsement of McCain would be the first in what my previous post suggested is likely to be several, provided McCain can stay in the race financially through to Super Tuesday. If Thompson does drop out, this would possibly also mean a strong Iowa placement for McCain, which would give him some almost unstoppable momentum going into New Hampshire; after New Hampshire, we would expect McCain's fundraising to accelerate enough to make him the presumptive favorite.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Posted by Mark at 1:03 AM