Final Super Tuesday Predictions and Prognostications

The other day I gave a best guess on the fluid status of the Super Tuesday races on the Dem side. Today, I'm going to lay it all on the line and get very specific on those predictions by giving what I think will be the final spread in each race. While Obama has been gaining in almost all the polls, I want to point out that Hillary starts out with a big advantage in absentee ballots in a number of states. I also suspect that voter turnout will be highest among those who made up their minds awhile ago, which is the group most likely to have been following the race closely. So my predictions are slightly less optimistic for Obama than his momentum would suggest.

If I have time, I'll try to do the same for the Republicans tonight or tomorrow morning.

Without further ado:

Alabama: Clinton by less than 5. Total delegates split about evenly
Arizona: Clinton by 5-10, with a slight advantage in delegates
Arkansas: Clinton by about 20-25, and about 2/3 of the delegates
California: Clinton by about 5 on the strength of early votes. Delegates split about evenly.
Colorado: Obama by 5-10, delegates split about evenly.
Connecticut: Obama by one or two points, delegates split evenly.
Delaware: Obama by about 5, and a slight advantage on delegates.
Georgia: Obama by about 20-25, and about 2/3 of the delegates
Idaho: Obama by 20-25, and about 3/4 of the delegates
Illinois: Obama by 30+, and about 3/4 of the delegates
Kansas: Obama by 5-10, and a slight delegate advantage
Massachussetts: Clinton by less than 5, delegates split about evenly
Minnesota: Obama by less than 5, delegates split about evenly
Missouri: Clinton by less than 5, delegates split about evenly
New Jersey: Clinton by 5-10, and a slight delegate advantage
New Mexico: Clinton by less than 5, and a slight delegate advantage
New York: Clinton by 20, but Obama wins NYC by a slim margin. Clinton gets about 60% of the delegates
North Dakota (no link): Obama by 15-20, about 2/3 of the delegates
Oklahoma: Clinton by 25, and about 60% of the delegates (with Edwards picking off a couple delegates despite dropping out)
Tennessee: Clinton by 20 and about 2/3 of the delegates
Utah: Obama by 10, and about 60% of the delegates

Final result: Clinton wins 11 states, Obama wins 10, with American Samoa and Democrats Abroad unknown (though I suspect Obama wins the latter handily). Total delegates awarded: Clinton, 850-900; Obama, 750-800, Edwards 0-50. The race continues on to February 12, and beyond.

***Revised to include North Dakota***
***UPDATE 2: The original version vastly understated the number of delegates at stake; mistake has been corrected***